The Deadman Night Rider

A forum for evening students of the SMU Dedman School of Law and other outlaws..

Friday, March 14, 2008

And yet "Flip This House" has been picked up for another season...

The sickness of houses threatens to swallow Bear Stearns, and if we're lucky, will stop there (though I doubt it).

The long-term fundamentals aren't all that great, but in a way they sort of understate how bad the short term may really be: the only thing keeping overall housing prices flat or just barely negative (especially here in Dallas) is the high-end market. But here's a snippet from an article in the Atlantic this month:

Arthur C. Nelson, director of the Metropolitan Institute at Virginia Tech, has looked carefully at trends in American demographics, construction, house prices, and consumer preferences. In 2006, using recent consumer research, housing supply data, and population growth rates, he modeled future demand for various types of housing. The results were bracing: Nelson forecasts a likely surplus of 22 million large-lot homes (houses built on a sixth of an acre or more) by 2025—that’s roughly 40 percent of the large-lot homes in existence today. (my emphasis)


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